Study: Warming Effects Will Vary
By AP/RANDOLPH E. SCHMID
TIME
March 27, 2007
Some
climates may disappear from Earth entirely, not just
from their current locations, while new climates
could develop if the planet continues to warm, a
study says. Such changes would endanger some plants
and animals while providing new opportunities for
others, said John W. Williams, an assistant
professor of geography at the University of
Wisconsin, Madison.
Using global
change forecasts prepared for the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, researchers led by Williams
used computer models to estimate how climates in
various parts of the world would be affected. Their
findings are being published in this week's online
edition of Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences.
The IPCC,
representing the world's leading climate scientists,
reported in February that "warming of the climate
system is unequivocal, as is now evident from
observation of increases in global average air and
ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and
ice and rising global average sea level."
Tropical
regions in particular may face unexpected changes,
particularly the rain forests in the Amazon and
Indonesia, Williams' researchers concluded.
This was
surprising, Williams said in a telephone interview,
since the tropics tend to have little variation in
weather.
But that
also means temperature changes of 3 or 4 degrees in
these regions might have more impact than a change
of 5 to 8 degrees in a region that is accustomed to
regular changes.
Species
living in tropical areas may be less able to adapt,
he said, adding that that is speculative and needs
further study.
Areas like
the Southeastern United States and the Arabian
Peninsula may also be affected, the researchers
said, adding that mountain areas such as in Peruvian
and Colombian Andes and regions such as Siberia and
southern Australia face a risk of climates
disappearing altogether.
That doesn't
mean these regions would have no climate at all —
rather their climate would change and the conditions
currently in these areas would not occur elsewhere
on Earth.
That would
pose a risk to species living in those areas,
Williams observed.
If some
regions develop new climates that don't now exist,
that might provide an opportunity for species that
live there, Williams said. "But we can't make a
prediction because it's outside our current
experience and outside the experience of these
species."
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